We think in writing.
These are the notes we keep returning to — on how a strategy earns trust, and how easily a good number can mislead. The ideas are the point. The specifics stay in-house.
START HEREA number is only as honest as how it was chosen
The failure behind most disappointing strategies is rarely a bad idea. It is a good number that was chosen by looking at it. Separating selection from reporting is what prevents that.
Paper first, always
Before any capital follows a strategy, it trades forward in time on paper, at costs we hold to be realistic. It is where we expect most survivors to fail.
What earns a place
Few strategies reach the program. That reflects the height of the bar, and a strategy holds its place only while it keeps earning it.
The data we refuse to look at
A held-out period is worth having only while it stays unseen. We keep data that research never touches, and a strategy gets a single look at it.
We write when there is something worth saying, and not before.
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